Progression Rates from Emerging Athlete Development Pathways to Professional Sports Contracts
The exact percentages of athletes who transition from development pathways like talent academies and collegiate programs into paid professional contracts can vary significantly based on country, sport, and the specific development programs in question, and the data is closely guarded and difficult to attain.
The figures below highlight the extremely competitive nature of professional sports and the challenges faced by emerging athletes in their pursuit of professional careers. It's important to note that these rates can vary depending on factors such as the specific country, league, and individual development programs.
The low progression rates emphasize the importance of comprehensive athlete development programs that not only focus on sporting excellence but also prepare athletes for alternative career paths. It is also important to emphasise that these figures refer to the elite level each of the sports, and second-tier and semi-professional pathways also exist for those athletes aspiring to playing at a professional level.
National Football League
NFL Estimated Progression Rate: 1.5%
While exact progression rates for the NFL as a whole are not provided, we can infer both from the data we do have is that 1.5% of NCAA (US-Collegiate) football athletes are drafted to the NFL. However, the ‘power five’ division 1 conferences recorded an 11% draft rate. For players in the NFL International Player Pathway (IPP) program, inaugurated in 2017: 37 international players sign with NFL teams, with 5 making it to active rosters.
Rugby Union & Rugby League
Estimated Progression Rate: 5-10%
The competition in rugby academies is intense, especially in countries like New Zealand, South Africa, and England. Only 5-10% of athletes from high-performance pathways secure contracts in leagues like Super Rugby or the English Premiership.
Golf
Estimated Progression Rate: 1-2%
College and amateur golf programs offer pathways to the PGA and European Tours, but only about 1-2% of golfers make it to the professional level.
Rugby League
Estimated Progression Rate: 5-10%
Just like in rugby union, rugby league pathways are highly competitive. Athletes from NRL and Super League development programs often face tough odds, with around 5-10% making it into paid professional contracts.
Football (Soccer)
Estimated Progression Rate: 1-2%
Even in elite football academies, such as those in Europe, only a very small percentage of players—around 1-2%—earn long-term professional contracts in leagues like the Premier League or La Liga.
Tennis
Estimated Progression Rate: 1-2%
With global competition fierce, only around 1-2% of athletes from junior tournaments or national tennis academies break into the ATP or WTA to secure lucrative professional contracts.
Boxing
Estimated Progression Rate: 1-2%
With global competition fierce, only around 1-2% of athletes from junior tournaments or national tennis academies break into the ATP or WTA to secure lucrative professional contracts.
Netball
Estimated Progression Rate: 5-10%
Athletes in netball pathways, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, have a slightly higher progression rate, with about 5-10% of players from elite programs moving into paid professional contracts in domestic leagues
Basketball
Estimated Progression Rate: 1-3%
Transitioning from NCAA or other basketball development programs into the NBA or other top leagues is extremely challenging. Only about 1.2% of college basketball players go on to play in the NBA.
Ice Hockey
Estimated Progression Rate: 4-7%. From elite junior leagues (e.g., CHL in Canada, college hockey in the US) to the NHL, the progression rate is relatively higher than in some other sports. However, it is still highly competitive, and not all draftees go on to have lasting professional careers.
Cricket
Estimated Progression Rate: 5-8%
In countries like England, India, and Australia, elite cricketers have a 5-8% chance of moving from first-class or academy systems into paid contracts in professional leagues such as the IPL or County Cricket
Mixed Martial Arts
Estimated Progression Rate: 5-10%
While the path to top organizations like UFC is difficult, around 5-10% of MMA fighters from regional circuits eventually secure professional contracts.